Sunday, April 01, 2007

Things remain predictable

Ian Chappell has a piece on Cricinfo in which he decries the way in which apparently good sides seem to be falling away from the leaders, and in which he argues that Australia and New Zealand are the only two sides still looking good, and that there is therefore a good chance that those two sides will meet in the final.

I don't really disagree with any of this. An Australia v New Zealand final is very possible, and I am certainly disappointed with the performances of the West Indies and England (and for that matter Pakistan and Inida) in this tournament. Chappell is critical of the South African batting against Sri Lanka and their bowling against Australia, and also by the Sri Lankan top order batting against South Africa. These are fair criticisms, but they are only about one or two matches (or parts of matches). It would be foolish to write off either Sri Lanka or South Africa at this point. All either side needs to do is make the semi-finals (which is looking pretty easy for both) and then win two matches. And the strengths of both sides are considerable.

As it happened, Sri Lanka's top order batted well against the West Indies today. Sri Lanka lost Tharanga and Sangakkara early to be 2/35, but Jayasuriya and Jayawardene then batted superbly, putting on nearly 200 as Jayasuriya scored 115 and Jayawardene (who, incidentally and very well deservedly is named one of the five cricketers of the year in the new Wisden) 82. At 2/218 off 34.4 overs, a score of 330 or 340 was possible, but Sri Lanka were pegged back perhaps a little and ended up with 5/303 after Dilshan hit 39 off 22 balls at the end.

The way the West Indies have been batting, that was likely to be plenty, and so it turned out. The West Indies lost Gayle, Bravo and Lara quite quickly and it was 3/42 off 10.1 overs. After that they were never really in it, and although Chanderpaul (76) and Sarwan (44) put on 92 for the fourth wicket they were a very long way below the Sri Lankan run rate and they were only adding respectability. Once they were out, any respectability went quickly, as wickets tumbled and the West Indies were all out for 190, a third consecutive pathetic defeat for the West Indies with Sri Lanka winning by 113 runs. Wickets were shared around, but Malinga took the two important wickets of Gayle and Chanderpaul. His form is important. He is a bowler who can rapidly turn around a match the way Brett Lee can for Australia when he is playing. (It is such a shame that he isn't).

The table looks like this.
Super 8PlayedWonLostTied/NRPtsNet RR
Australia330062.014
Sri Lanka321042.069
New Zealand220040.982
England 211020.047
South Africa21102-0.714
West Indies41302-1.177
Ireland20200-1.019
Bangladesh20200-3.776


Sri Lanka will take heart at this after their lacklustre performance against South Africa. This was a good win. On the other hand, the West Indies remain dreadful. They will still likely (but not definitely) make the semi-finals if they can defeat South Africa, Bangladesh and England. This is an easier combination of opponents than Australia, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka, but on presently form their chances of winning all three games do not look good. Their next game is not until April 10, so they do have time to regroup, but oh boy do they need to regroup.

We are in fact only a quarter of the way through the Super Eights - six games have been played. However, the semi-finals almost seem settled, with Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and South Africa lookings odds on to be the four semi-finalists. The one proviso is that England and South Africa have each only played one Super Eight game, and each have two points. (It would have been more interesting if Sri Lanka had got that last wicket against South Africa, because in that case South Africa would really be playing catchup, albeit with weaker opposition in front of them than behind them). The expectation is that South Africa will get well ahead of England on the basis of form and ability, not on presently positions on the table. If South Africa could unexpectedly lose a game or England unepectedly win one, then things could be interesting. I stress could, because in truth I doubt it.
In the short terms, this would require England to upset Sri Lanka on Wednesday, and I can't see that.

New Zealand v Bangladesh in Antigua tomorrow. New Zealand are making all the correct noises about not taking Sri Lanka lightly, but I can't see the game being remotely close. New Zealand are not going to let their guard down, and Bangladesh are not good enough to beat them if they do not.

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Austtralia continue on their way

As Scott wrote, England did what was necessary (ie they won) against Ireland yesterday, but they could not be said to have been impressive. A similar situation was never likely between Australia and Bangladesh today. Australia look too focused and too disciplined to give Bangladesh a break.

Due to a lot of overnight rain, the outfield in Antigua was drenched, and a lot of work to dry the outfield was necessary before any play was possible. No play was possible until well after the scheduled interval, and eventually when play started the game had been reduced to 22 overs a side. By the eight over mark, Bangladesh had lost four wickets for 37, and after that Bangladesh just eked out runs to survive the full 22 overs, ending up with 6/104 off their 50 overs, with Saqibul Hasan and Mashrafe Mortaza and Habibul Bashar scoring most of the runs between then with about 25 each. McGrath was the most successful bowler with 3/16. His second wicket of Aftab Ahmed took him past Wasim Akram to make him the highest wicket taker in World Cup cricket.

Australia got the runs with ease, and with ten wickets remaining. Gilchrist score 59 off 44 balls with eight fours and a six, and Hayden 47 off 39 with three fours and three sixes. This only took the Autstralians 13.5 overs, and the win win was the easiest imaginable. Bangladesh shouldn't take this too hard - in their present mood Australia are doing it to everybody - and will hopefully show fight in their upcoming games. That said, they have a rough patch, as their next two games are against New Zealand next Monday and then South Africa next Saturday. (They should find their final three games after that against England, Ireland and the West Indies easier going).

Australia on the other hand now have a bit of a break - their next game is against England on Easter Sunday April 8. I think they have earned a couple of days rest.

Tomorrow we have West Indies v Sri Lanka. A West Indian victory in this would open the tournament up a lot, but on recent form I really can't see it. Sri Lanka to win that one easily.
On this showing, England won't be in the semi-finals

England played Ireland last night in the Super 8's and although they did enough to win, they did not do enough to convince me, and I suspect others, that they will progress any further in the tournament.

To my eyes, it did not seem like an established international team taking on a minnow- for large swathes of the game, it seemed like a meeting of equals. Bangladesh will take a lot of heart from England's inability to rise to the occasion. England will no doubt say that they did enough to win, and that is true. But there was nothing in their performance to suggest that they'll give the slightest trouble to the 'big four' emerging- South Africa, Sri Lanka, Australia and New Zealand.

What was wrong was simply a lack of 'big-match' intensity in England's performance, except for Collingwood at the end of England's innings and Flintoff's at the end of Ireland's innings. It was an underwhelming performance by England and they'll have to work much harder if they are to challenge Sri Lanka next week.

Ireland on the other hand once again put in a performance that was greater then the sum of its parts, although Niall O'Brien's 63 was a great knock. There might be a few more Irish surprises in this World Cup yet.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

I hate to say it, but the West Indies are dreadful

I was perhaps a little too hard on the Sri Lankans yesterday. They made a few mistakes, and were outplayed and lost the game, but at least they showed some fight. If one ball from Malinga had been ever so slightly differently aimed, they would have won.

The contrast with today was really striking. The West Indies batted first in similar conditions to those on which Australia scored 322 on Tuesday. As one expects from New Zealand, the bowling was tight and the fielding was good. And the West Inides just succumbed to this. Bond took 3/31. Oram 3/23. Vettori 3/39. Lara hung in for a bit, but didn't get going, and the rest of the side just got out to terrible shot selection and a complete lack of discipline. Gayle 44 and Lara 37 were the only batsmen who got 20. The West Indies got a lousy 177, and there was no way this was enough.
New Zealand lost Fulton to the second ball of the innings, but that was the most joy that the West Indians got. To insipid bowling from the West Indians, New Zealand carefully and slowly got the runs. Fleming got 45, McMillan 33 no out and Styris 80 not out. The Australian couple in the pub where I was watching the game were critical of the New Zealanders for not scoring the runs faster, but I wasn't. New Zealand want to get the points, and not slip up. They did that. New Zealand won, easily, by seven wickets. Solid performance by New Zealand. Terrible performance by the West Indies. Bangladesh will be fancying their chances against the West Indies if they continue to play like this.

The table looks like this.
Super 8PlayedWonLostTied/NRPtsNet RR
Australia220041.860
New Zealand220040.982
Sri Lanka211021.972
South Africa21102-0.714
West Indies31202-0.783
England10100-0.942
Ireland10100-1.041
Bangladesh10100-4.304


It is likely that eights points will be needed to make the semi finals, although this is not certain. (It is actually possible for sides to score as many as ten points and miss out, but it requires very unusual circumstances for a side to score nine or more points and miss out. Eights points and missing out is quite conceivable, but still not all that likely. Similarly depending on other results it is possible for sides to qualify for the semi-finals with as few as four points, but this would require freak results. Six or seven points and a good run-rate might be enough, but no side can rely on this). Australia and New Zealand still have to play both Bangladesh and Ireland, and as both will have little difficulty beating those two sides on present form, one has to say it is very unlikely that either Australia or New Zealand will miss out on the semi-finals. The West Indies, Bangladesh, and Ireland are unlikely to make the semi-finals, so we essentially have three sides (Sri Lanka, South Africa, and England) in the hunt for the other two spots. England have not been impressive so far but have done enough. (Of course, three days ago this was also true of the West Indies). My money is still on Sri Lanka and South Africa, but a couple of good performances from England and they are in the semi-finals. And from there, who knows.

The next few days do not in truth look very interesting. England play Ireland tomorrow, and while as an Australian I would love to see an upset, it is unlikely. Australia play Bangladesh on Saturday, and the way Australia are playing at the moment I really cannot see Bangladesh getting close. On Sunday the West Indies play Sri Lanka. On present form, the West Indies will get destroyed, but if there was to be an upset it would put a cat amongst the pigeons and Sri Lanka, England, the West Indies would be frantically struggling for the last semi-final place. On Monday Bangladesh play New Zealand, and New Zealand should be too good (although go Bangladesh). Ireland play South Africa on Tuesday, which should be an easy win for the South Africans. It is not until England v Sri Lanka next Wednesday that we get something that promises to be a good game. Still, we can hope that something interesting happens between now and then.

On the other hand, if England, Australia, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, and South Africa win the games up to Tuesday, the table looks like this.

Super 8PlayedWonLostTied/NRPtsNet RR
Australia33006-
New Zealand33006-
Sri Lanka32104-
South Africa32104-
England21102-
West Indies41302-
Ireland30300-
Bangladesh30300-


If Sri Lanka are then able to beat England on Wednesday, then we have a pretty clear situation of four likely semi-finalists and an uphill battle for other sides to challenge them. If England can win that, the last couple of spots will be much more open.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

A fairly dull conclusion to one game, and something remarkable in another

Firstly, a piece of cricketing terminology. A "hat trick" is well known. This is when a bowler takes three wickets with three consecutive balls. These seem to be one in a career things in test criket for great bowlers. Shane Warne took one in test cricket. Glenn McGrath took one in test cricket. In one day international cricket they are a little more common as towards the end of the innings batsmen are more concerned with scoring runs than not getting out. However, they are still considered quite rare ans special when they happen.

A less well known piece of terminology is a "double hat trick". A first thought is that this might mean six wickets from six balls, but in fact it means four wickets from four consecutive balls. The "double" comes from the fact that four wickets in four balls contains two hat tricks, one with the first, second, and third balls, and one with the second, third, and fourth balls. As of this morning, nobody had ever taken a double hat trick in international cricket, although a very small number had happened in first class cricket.

But, back to that later. Firstly, today's cricket. The West Indies started their innings in Antigua today requiring 323 to beat Australia. It had rained overnight and the moisture in the air led to speculation that the ball would swing pretty much from the start. Thinking of Shaun Tait's successful inswingers against the South Africans on Saturday made us think that the West Indian batsmen might be in trouble.

And so it happened. McGrath and Tait got movement. Chanderpaul, Gayle, and Samuels were all out with only 20 runs on the board. Somehow that took them ten overs. (Part of the somehow was tight fielding and bowling from Australia, of course). Sarwan and Lara dug in, but the run rate required was fairly quickly qpproaching ten an over. The strategy seemed to be to stick in until about the 35th over, and then hope that Lara could find a really purple patch. It really would have had to have been something to even match Hayden's purple patch of the previous day, and it was always a really long shot. Lara stayed in, but lost Sarwan and Bravo along the way. At 5/132 in the 33rd over, Lara understood it was time, and went after Brad Hogg, in particular hitting a big six over long off. It was crunch time.

However, Hogg was as canny as always, and bowled an accurate ball with plenty of air in the next over, that hit the inside of Lara's pad right in front as he was trying to sweep. Lara was out LBW. For all practical purposes that was it. Hogg did almost exactly the same thing to Smith an over later - he was hit for six and then immediately bowled a good one and took the wicket, again lbw. Hogg is so good in these situations.

At that point the West Indians did not know whether to defend of attack pointlessly, and despite a solid 52 from wicket keeper Ramdin, they surrended the rest of their wickets fairly feebly to be all out for 219 off 45.3 overs. Australia won by an extremely convinving 103 runs. There is not much to say. The West Indies were never really in it. They were not impressive. Right now they do not look like making much of a challenge for the tournament. Thanks to scheduling and the rain delay, tomorrow will be the third day in a row that they have to play. They really need a win against New Zealand to get some confidence back.

Australia on the other hand were very impressive. Tait and Hogg bowled well again, Australia's fielding was good, and the batting was great yesterday. Hayden's batting was awesome. Australians were not certain whether to play him in this tournament, but we are now glad they did. Symonds needs still to spend more time in the middle - I might be tempted to bat him at three or four in one of the next games to give him a little time to get his eye in. Hussey similarly could use some runs, but it is probably to early to yet say he is out of form. The truth though is that Australia's batting is spectacular, and the bowling and feeling is better than I expected, and much better than I feared it might be.

In the other game, I was thinking positive things about Sri Lanka's chances, but they did not start well. Tharanga, Jayasuriya, Jayawardene, Sangakkara and went, and it was 5/98 off 24.3 overs. It was possible that they could have lost their remaining wickets and really suffered embarrassment, but Dilshan and Arnold both scored 50s, and took Sri Lanka to 5/195 off 45.5 overs. At that point, Sri Lanka should have got the score to about 230, which in tricky conditions would have been reasonable. However, Sri Lanka played the last five overs extremely badly. Dilshan and Arnold both got out attempting to push the run rate. This can happen, but the players who come in then have a responsibility to not waste the good work. That means under no circumstances get all out, and keep the scoreboard ticking over. Instead the remaining Sri Lankans attempted to do things like the first ball they faced for six, and thus get caught in the outfield first ball. Scoring three singles and then attempting to hit a six would have been much smarter, but there was none of this. Sri Lanka were all out after 49.3 overs for 209, having scored little more than ten runs in the last four overs. It was a waste of a good recovery, and at that point I was disappointed - Sri Lanka do not appear to be as canny a side as I thought.

South Africa lost de Villers in the first over, but after that Smith, Kallis, and then Gibbs appeared to be cruising to the target. South Africa took the score to 2/160 off 32 overs. At that point, I was talking on the phone to Brian Micklethwait. As we spoke, Muralitharan took two wickets in two balls to reduce the score to 4/160. He didn't complete the hat trick, and Brian and I both thought that it didn't matter and South Africa would win still win easily. Slightly prophetically I said that it would require something remarkable, like "Muralitharan now taking a hat trick" (in addition to those wickets) for Sri Lanka to win.

It didn't initially appear to happen. Kemp got out a little later to take it to 5/182, but there was plenty of time and it still looked easy enough. However, Malinga was bowling. Malinga is a wonderful bowler to watch when on his day. He has a Jeff Thomson like slingshot action, and although he ocasionally sprays it around, he is very fast and very hard to play when on his game.

However, at 5/106 with four needed to win, this did not seem to matter. Malinga removed both Kallis and Hall to really good fast yorkers with the last two balls of the 45th over. This was impressive, but the interest was still really whether the game would finish in the 46th over to deny him the chance to go for his hat trick in the 47th. It didn't, and Kallis faced in on the hat trick ball. Kallis went for a square drive, nicked it and was caught behind. That hat trick was taken, but there were only three runs needed and two wickets and three overs to go. This probably the moment when the South Africans got nervous. Malinga, amazingly, bowled the next ball This was yet another screaming yorker and Ntini was bowled first ball. Malinga had taken the first double hat trick in the history of international cricket.

South Africa could suddenly lose it. It still required another wicket though. If the South Africans could avoid this, then they would get the runs and win. Malinga had to take another wicket. He almost did, his next ball just missing the stumps. I am so sorry he didn't do it, because a triple hat trick to win a match from an impossible position would have been one of the great moments in one day cricket. Langevelt (who, I think, has one of the best names in world cricket) survived the over, and he and Peterson got the runs and got South Africa home. For some stupid reason (well, for taking 5/39) Langevelt was given the man of the match award. Sometimes it should be given to a player from the losing side, and this actually was one of those times. This game will be remembered for Malinga's double hat trick and his bowling, and it should have been given to him

Still, South Africa won by one wicket with ten balls to spare. In truth, South Africa will take more from this game from Sri Lanka. South Africa were on top for the whole game except for five minutes at the end. Their bowling was good, and their top order was pretty good too. Sri Lanka did not look well organised when batting or bowling. The fact that they got back into it speaks well of them, and having a fine bowler like Malinga in form is good, but their canniness and ability to graft a win looks worse after today than it did before.

In truth though, both sides showed weakness. As these are the second and third favourites in the tournament and I am an Australian, I thought it was a very positive day.
Michael Jennings Cricket quote of the day

Definitely no one will be going for autographs any more.

-Bangladesh cricket captain Habibal Bashar displays a new level of toughness about his country's cricket as they try to shake the 'minnow' tag.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The rain in Antigua ruins my evening

As I thought might happen this morning, the winner of the toss in the game between the West Indies and Australia did indeed choose to send the opposition in. It may have been that Brian Lara wanted to see how the pitch behaved for someone else before his side attempted to bat on it, or it may just have been that he thought that Australia have a weakness defening targets, but in any event Adam Gilchrist and Matthew Hayden found thmeselves batting at 2.30pm this afternoon London time, whatever the time may have been in Antigua. The batsmen got off to a middling start: Gilchrist got and edge and was out cheaply, and Ponting was okay (although still perhaps a little below his best) before being brilliantly run out by Ramnaresh Sarwan for 35. Clarke looked okay for 41, and Symonds and Hussey didn't do that much, being out for 9 and 13 respectively. Hussey hasn't really found form yet in this tournament, and Symonds is recovering from an injury. Both of them could do with some time in the middle.

However, Hayden stayed in, and accumulated runs. He wasn't really quick about it, but was not especially slow either. Australia seemed headed for about 300 - with the possibility of more if someone got hitting - until about the 42 over mark. At that point Hayden really got his eye in, hitting two sixes and a four during the 45th over, and two fours and a six off the 46th. At that point Australia had 5/284 with four overs to go, and Hayden was 152 not out. If Hayden could follow up those two overs with four more in which he kept the strike to end the innings, Australia would be around 360 at the end, and Hayden would be close to one of the holy grails of cricket - the first double century in one day international cricket. It would be in a serious match against serious opposition in the World Cup, and on a reasonably large ground. A 200 will be scored by somebody eventually, and a circumstance like this would be good for it.

Unfortunately, it then started raining. The players went off. The game was not shortened, but it was about 20 minutes before the players came back on again. Unfortunately Hayden's timing was not quite what it was before he went off. He cut the first ball for four, whereas before the break he would have hit it for six. The first ball of the next over he tried to hit for six over long off. Again, before he went off he would have succeeded, but trying to hit the ball for six over long off is a risky shot when there is a player fielding at long off, and Hayden was caught by Samuels off Bravo. Make no mistake, it was a really outstanding innings from Hayden, but it wasn't far from being an innings of legend, so the rain break was a shame.

Watson again demonstrated the ability to play shots bother powerful and clever in the final stages, and although there were no more sixes he scored a number of fours. Australia ended up with 6/322 off 50 overs. In truth this was an excellent score, although I think the rain delay actually cost them twenty to forty runs.

And that was it for the day. The rain fell again, and although there were various attempts to get the West Indian innings started, none of them succeeded. At one point it looked like they would just get on the field in time, and the chase would be reduced to a frantic 20 over scramble. (WestIndies would have needed 163 from 20 overs).

As it happens, the game is still a full 50 over match, and the West Indies need 323 off 50 overs tomorrow to win the match. The pitch is good to bat on, but the ground is large and the boundaries are long. In my mind, the West Indies need something special from Brian Lara to win it. I don't think the other players are quite good enough. This all assumes that Australia's much tighter and improved bowling from the other night at least partly remains. I think it will. Australia's problems stemmed at least partly from selection errors and, mercifully, selection now seems pretty right.

In any event, come back to check the accuracy of my predictions tomorrow, as well as South Africa versus Sri Lanka in Guyana. Are Sri Lanka as I think they might be? Assuming there is no more rain, we will have a better idea by this time tomorrow.

Monday, March 26, 2007

The Super Eight begins with three big games

Tomorrow, Australia takes on the West Indies in Antigua. Australia come fresh off their fine win against South Africa, and will be on a high. West Indies have perhaps been less impressive in the tournament so far, but they won all three games in the first round and carried two points over into the Super Eight, so they did none the less do everything that was asked of them. I think the cricketing world would love a home win in this tournament, and I wouldn't mind it myself. However, I none the less do not want them to beat us. Similarly, while I would like to see Brian Lara batting at his best in the tournament, I would once again prefer he did it against South Africa, or perhaps England. However, if he did it against us, I wouldn't mind too much. There are few things in cricket that are finer to watch than Brian Lara at his best.

I do not know what the pitch in Antigua is going to be like, and I do not know what a good score is going to be. It is possible that Ponting does not really know either. Threfore I think it might be a game in which the captain who wins the toss might elect to bat second. None the less, both sides have stronger batting than bowling, so the side that does bat first may well have a chance to score a big total. It will be interesting to see what happens.

On Wednesday, South Africa take on Sri Lanka in Guyana. South Africa were steadily firming second favouries until their loss to Australia on Saturday, when they eased a bit. Sri Lanka are now given shorter odds than South Africa, and have looked hungry and disciplined in the tournament so far. We shall see if South Africa can fight back, but my money is on Sri Lanka. If Sri Lanka can win this one, South Africa will have to then win four out of five to make the semi-finals, so it is looking like they will need to concentrate.

On Thursday, West Indies take on New Zealand, again in Antigua. New Zealand unfortunately will be missing Lou Vincent, who is out of the tournament after breaking his wrist in training, which is very bad luck for him and New Zealand. (His tournament so far was inconsistent - two ducks and a century. I am sure he would have liked to have had a chance to decide on the field whether he was having a good or bad tournament). Shane Bond versus Brian Lara could be an interesting duel. West Indies have the power to overwhelm New Zealand, but New Zealand have the niggling players and tactical skills to take advantage of any ill discipline or casual cricket on the part of the West Indies. Should be an interesting game.

If the West Indies lose both games, I think the case that they were flattered by winning their group and carrying points over into the Super Eight would be a strong one. If they can win at least one of the two games, things will be going well for them.
Making the pitch

One of the interesting factors in the group phases was the differences in the pitch conditions in the four venues that games have been played at so far. And as you would expect, the games have reflected those conditions.

Basically you can divide the groups into two- in Jamaica, the Sabina Park wicket was green and seamy, and offered plenty to the bowlers early on. The Queens Park Oval in Trinidad did not offer quite so much, but the prevailing weather conditions conspired to give bowlers plenty of assistance.

Whereas at St. Lucia and especially St. Kitts, there was little to assist the bowlers, just a flat pitch and short boundaries.

This was reflected in the results; there were big upsets in Jamaica, where Ireland were able to scrounge a tie against Zimbabwe, and to beat Pakistan. Meanwhile, Bangladesh were able to bowl wonderfully well in Trinidad to knock over a lazy Indian team, which has seen them eliminated from the tournament.

But in the batting friendly conditions of St. Lucia and St. Kitts, there has not been a sniff of an upset. The Test nations went through and the minnows were duly hammered.

The ICC and ground authorities world-wide are deluded into thinking that because crowds want to see lots of boundaries that flat tracks are the way to go. But what spectators really want to see are tight, exciting finishes, and you need helpful bowling tracks for that. Consider Australia vs South Africa the other day. South Africa were in the hunt for half of their innings, but once they lost a couple of wickets, they fell away and were beaten by 83 runs. In ODI terms, 83 runs is a fairly large margain. Had the match been played in fairer conditions, it might have gone right down to the wire.

But in the Super Eight phase, the matches move to Antigua and Guyana, and into brand new grounds. New grounds mean new pitches, which is good news, as new pitches are rarely batsmen friendly. I am hoping that we can still see some upsets in this stage of the tournament, and lots of close results ahead.
England poor – Flintoff – empty seats – South Africa lose momentum - lots of TV sets – England poor at soccer too

This is not Michael or Scott, this is Brian Micklethwait, guest posting at Michael's about the cricket, from a non-Oz, London point of view.

I've been sitting in my kitchen in London, keeping track of the scores on Ceefax (never mind) during the day if I'm at home, and then watching and hard discing the highlights on BBC1 TV, at around midnight. Most of the latest show was padding, a lot of repetitious stuff about Scotland and Ireland and all those sixes that Herschelle Gibbs hit off that Dutch guy, again, with a lot of archive video of Sobers, again. And in among that, there was the Bangladesh Bermuda game that Michael has already described. There was hardly anything about India, which is the real story of this game. Couldn't we have had video of agonised Indians in Mumbai, watching appalled as the Bermudans dropped the catches that would have made it Bangladesh four or five down and wobbly, instead of three and cruising?

So anyway, aside from the Bob Woolmer murder mystery and resulting controversy (apart from that Mrs Lincoln ...?) what else do I notice about this Cricket World Cup?

First things first. England look very ropey, with the recent ODI success against Australia in Australia looking more and more of an Australian aberration as the days go by. But, in ODI knock out tournaments, good sides can look very good, right up to the bit where they get knocked out by a side that looked rather poor until then. That, after all, is what happened to Australia in Australia. I hope England can do well, but to do well they will have to do much better.

I hated all the grovelling that Flintoff had to do, after going out on a bender. Okay it was a bit stupid and all that, but being a sportsman is like being a sort of paid child, and I expect childishness from these people, some of them anyway. Sober citizens like Michael Vaughan, who play cricket the way Chartered Accountants do whatever it is they do to accounts, are sober citizens off the field also and to go to bed sober, at their proper bedtime. But Flintoff? He's a boy-man if ever there was one, like Ian Botham before him. And now he's in the West Indies. Of course he would drag some of his friends out with him to try some of the local tipples at the first possible opportunity, and then want to have a go on a bicycle boat.

As so often with World Cups of all kinds, a TV viewer like me can't help notice how few of the locals are bothering to turn up to watch the games. Given how important TV is in all this, can't the TV people buy up the spare tickets and give them away, preferably to young and pretty people, maybe even paying them or otherwise bribing them to show up and fill all those swathes of empty plastic seats? Maybe the locals have already bought all tickets, but then they only show up towards the end, after work, if it looks like it's a good game.

The Australia South Africa (oops wrong link) game was the first one to really get my attention. As Michael has already written here, he witnessed the conclusion of that game in a South African London bar. I was with him there for a while, just when the South African innings was fatally losing its momentum. This showed, I think, how important it is for an ODI batting side, once it is going well, to go on going well. A couple of wickets and everything can change in a blink. From being set fair to get three hundred, they can suddenly be struggling to get over two hundred. Or in this case they can be half way to nearly four hundred with only one wicket down, and still lose by a hundred.

I don't usually watch sport in bars, and I was struck by the sheer number of TV sets there were in this one, even little ones at each of the little tables in the corridor where we watched it, not just big screens in the big bar areas. Cheap flatscreen TVs is what this is all about. Remember those how the first pub TVs used to lean precariously out into the room, to accommodate the bulges behind them. Those days are long gone.

Most of sport-gawping London's attention on Saturday night seemed to be on the Israel England soccer game, which I ignored, sensing tedium and disappointment. I was not wrong. (England are not the same without Beckham, a greatly underrated individual in my opinion.) Before we watched the South Africa game, Michael and I had tried another place where they were showing England versus Kenya, the end of the Kenya innings. But then they switched to the soccer. I should have known, what with the brain-dead chanting that fat blokes in T-shirts had already started doing: Ing! Ger! Land! Ing! Ger! Land! I hate that.
Interesting

Just looking at the readership stats, I see I have a reader in Saint George Basseterre, Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis. I would like to hope that Ricky Ponting is a regular reader, but I suspect he probably isn't. Anyway, hello, whoever you are. If you got to see Australia v South Africa live, I am very jealous.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

The Super Eight is Settled

The final match in the first round occurred today, when Bangladesh played Bermuda. Bangladesh needed to win, draw, or tie this match to make the Super Eight. If they failed, India would rather improbably go through. However, that was never likely. The game was, however, repeatedly delayed by rain. In the end, after a number of delays the game was reduced to 21 overs per side. Bermuda scored 9/94 off 21 overs. Abdur Razzak took 3/20 for Bangladesh, but wickets were shared around. Thanks to the subtle (but completely fair) details of the Duckworth Lewis rule, Bangladesh were required to score 96 off 21 overs to win. This was never going to be difficult, but chases of this nature almost always have a hiccup or two along the way, and this was no exception. Mukuddem took three wickets for Bermuda, the score was 3/37, everyone got nervous in the Bangladesh dressing room, and then.....

And then Bangladesh cruised home. Saqibul Hasan and Mohammad Ahraful scored 26 not out and 29 not out respectively. Bangladesh won by seven wickets with 3.3 overs remaining. Bangladesh qualified for the Super Eight, with much apparent joy in the Bangladesh dressing room. Bangladesh are delighted to make the Super Eight, and I am sure quite amused that they have done better than either India or Pakistan. Their task now is to win at least a couple of their remaining six games. If they go home having beaten Ireland and one other side in the Super Eight, and are able to finish sixth (or similar) in the World Cup, they would go home with their heads high and it genuinely would be a job well done.

I haven't discussed India's elimination on this blog in cricketing terms. I may (or may not) discuss this tomorrow, which is (thankfully) a rest day in the tournament. The main story from their last game was continues fine form from Sri Lanka, who are now rated second favourites (after Australia) by bookmakers to win the tournament. This is fair - they are clearly a real chance. And England have won the games they were supposed to (finishing with yesterday's easy victory over Kenya) to go through to the second round. England haven't been especially impressive and I do not expect them to make the semi-finals, but they have done what was necessary so far. When you consider that both Pakistan and India were unable to do what was necessary, and that England failed to get to the second round in either of the last two World Cups, then they must be given at least some credit for achieving this.

But here we have it. The Super Eight consists of Sri Lanka, Australia, West Indies, New Zealand, England, Ireland, South Africa, and Bangladesh. After points and run rates are carried over, they are in that order on the table. The carrying over of points into the Super Eight has worked well this time. I doubt anyone thinks that the present table positions are unfair. At the start of the tournament I predicted that South Africa, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and India would make the semi-finals. Those predictions are looking good except for the fact that India have been eliminated from the tournament. Australia are the obvious side to substitute into my semi-final predictions.
The Super Eight seems settled, and I may have regained faith in the Australian team.

About 18 months ago, I started to get worried about the Australian one day team. There was nothing wrong with the batting - when you have Gilchrist, Ponting, Hussey, and Symonds in the team, and people like Matthew Hayden, Michael Clarke, and Simon Katich in the second list, you have nothing much to complain about. However, the bowling worried me. I have mixed feelings about Brett Lee as a test bowler, but in one day cricket, he is a terrific finisher. The side batting second can be four or five down and looking like getting the target, and two or three fast yorkers from him and the game is over. However, the rest of the bowling looked tepid. Glenn McGrath was coming to the end of a great career. And beyond that Australia was playing a series of tepid seam bowlers in the middle order. Opposition batting lineups were slowly figuring this out. This came to a head in my mind against New Zealand in Wellington in December 2005, when Australia allowed New Zealand to score 320 and 322 in consecutive matches batting second. Australia won that series, and (largely through batting strength kept winning that season, but they always looked shakey in the middle overs batting second. In Johannesburg later that season they did (famously) manage the extraordinary feat of failing to defend 434. My mind is still boggling at that one. (That said, I know no cricket fan whose mind is not.

Again though, Australia seemed to recover, winning a One Day Series in Malaysia, the Champions Trophy, and seeming to be just fine until half way through the CB series in Australia in January. However, they still wobbled in the middle overs when attempting to defend targets. I was not convinced, and my expectation was that they would go into the World Cup full of confidence, be found out horribly, and then bomb out of it. There seemed a complete lack of appreciation of the problems in the Australian camp, with comments being made about Australia wishing for "more fight from the opposition", and the bowling balance being completely wrong. I continued telling anyone who would listen that I thought Australia would not win the World Cup.

And then Australia were found out early, or so it appeared, losing three times to England at the end of the CB series to lose the tournament, and then losing 3-0 horrendously to New Zealand in the Chappell Hadlee trophy, by ten wickets and then failing to defend 336 and 346 in consecutive matches. All my fears had been confirmed, and Australia were not much of a chance. At the start of the tournament when I previewed the sides on this blog, I predicted Australia to miss the semi-finals. I didn't really believe that - a colleague at work asked me to actually put money on the prediction and I declined - but my expectation was that some other side would eliminate Australia quickly in a semi-final. And that may still happen.

But the tournament started oddly. India and Pakistan either bombed out or appeared in great risk of doing so. The competition was less. Australia and South Africa defeated lesser opposition easily. Anticipation was high for yesterday's match. The game was on the small ground at St Kitts. Given the batting strength of the two sides and the quality of the pitch, big scores were expected. Presumably betting on Australia's reputation of being unable to defend, South African captain Graeme Smith won the toss and sent Australia in. Australia came out of the blocks firing. Matthew Hayden seems to have finally figured out how to play one day cricket, and he and Adam Gilchrist came out of the blocks firing, putting on 106 in 14.5 overs for the first wicket. Hayden then went on with it, scoring the fastest century in World Cup history before he was out and it was 2/167 after 23.3 overs. At that point 400 was on, and I thought that was needed, but the South African bowlers and fieldsmen then did a good job of containing the Australians. It seems remarkable to say that when they ultimately scores 377, but the boundaries largely dried up after about 35 overs. Ponting was sluggish by his standards. Michael Clarke at times played shots that demonstrated why the amounts of hype that accompanies his arrival to the word stage were so large, and played the odd stupid shot and was luck that a couple of catches were dropped. But he generally played well for 92 off 75 balls to accompany Ponting's 91 off 91. Australia really needed one of those players to hit sixes in the last five overs, but it just didn't happen. They both got out, and Symonds came in briefly, played a couple of shots that demonstrated that he will be fine by the semi-finals (in injury recovery terms) and then got out. Hussey came and went, and Watson came in and played a few nice shots, but nobody really boosted the run rate. The last ten overs did not feature much of an acceleration. I thought Australia were 30 to 50 runs short of what they needed. It is a remarkable change in one day cricket that a side can score 6/377 off 50 overs and I can think this, but I did and do.

South Africa came out to bat, and South Africa scored 154 for no wicket off the first 20 overs. All my worst fears were confirmed. Australia couldn't defend anything. There was a brief respite when de Villiers was run out for 92 off 70 balls thanks to a great direct hit from the outfield from Shane Watson. At the time I felt a certain feeling or irony ("Our bowlers *still* can't take a wicket") but it was crucial. Kallis came in and started slowly. Smith kept going full ahead. I was watching the game in the Springbok Bar in Covent Garden (which was one of the few bars in London with no England football supporters in it and where the main game was the cricket) and the crowd was happy, cheering every four.

However, Kallis batting slowly mattered, because he didn't accelerate. Smith had to retire hurt with a cramp, and suddenly the runs stopped. Australia's fielding was excellent, and the bowling was suddenly tight. The required run rate started to move upwards. If this happens for a few overs this doesn't matter as much as some people think - a few sixes will bring it back down again - but the target was 378. That was still a lot. South Africa managed half the required score off 25 overs for the loss of only one wicket, but the second half suddenly looked a lot harder. Without Smith, Kallis' slow scoring suddenly mattered. Brad Hogg was on. Brad Hogg was bowling well. Some fine work from Hogg and Gilchrist had Gibbs stumped, McGrath had Prince caught shortly afterwards, and suddenly Australia was on top. Shaun Tait came on, and the ball started swinging. The fielding remained tight and the runs didn't restart. The South Africans tried to boost the run-rate, and rather than doing so wickets tumbled. Boucher and Kemp went to fine inswingers from Tait. Kallis didn't get out, but didn't score runs either, and the South African crowd in the bar started to savagely criticise him. Smith came back at a moment where fast runs were needed, and just got out to Hogg. At that point South Africa gave up, and batted on for a little as Australia cleaned up the tail. South Africa all out 294. Australia won by 83 runs. The South African supporters switched in about 30 minutes from cheering loudly and intently to savagely attacking their own players, wondering why South Africans were such chokers, and announcing how terrible it was to have one side winning all the time. If the players' confidence is as fragile as the fans, South Africa will not have much chance of winning the tournament.

From Australia's point of view, I couldn't help but be much more positive. The messing around with tepid medium-pacers has perhaps been fixed in time. Tait and Hogg are in the side, and were both excellent yesterday. Brackan, McGrath, and Watson were good. Australia's bowling stopped the flow of runs against good batting in a way they haven't for a while. I may regret saying this, but I think Australia might win this.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Some background to India, Pakistan, and corruption

I wrote this overview for readers of Samizdata, many of who are American, but I think it belongs here as well

In 1983, India unexpectedly won the World Cup in England. This was a huge event for India, and it led to India and Pakistan asking for and gaining the right to host the 1987 World Cup. This was a big thing for the cricket World Cup, as it had been a largely English event (hosted by England, under English local playing conditions) until that point. The 1987 event ended up on the subcontinent at least partly because the England board had to some extent lost interest, and they weren't too bothered by somebody else taking it off their hands. (It wasn't too long later that the cricketing boards of the world - including England - started arguing bitterly over the right to host it - but interest in it was limited at that point).

India followed up the 1983 win with a win in the seven nation World Championship of cricket, held in Australia in 1985 to celebrate the 150th anniversary of the state of Victoria (or some such excuse). At the time, this event was not regarded as much less than a World Cup (which was, as I said, England's event) - the key thing is that all seven test playing countries were participating. That 1983 win had something that the Australian organisers would not have preferred but which must have gone down well on the subcontinent - an India v Pakistan final, won by India.

Thus India in Pakistan went into the 1987 event believing that they were the teams to beat, and that the event represented a coming of age for subcontinental cricket. The two teams did indeed play well, topping the points tables in the two groups, and each playing home semi-finals. The expectation of everyone was that India and Pakistan would meet in the final.

This did not happen. Australia and England each won their respective semi-finals and met in the final, with Australia winning the tournament. (Expectations in Australia were so low that nobody had even purchased the television rights to the tournament until midway through it - and then after Channel Nine did so, it did not bother to show any of the semi-finals live, and then chose to show a movie rather than the second (England) innings of the final. Australians did not get to see Australia's first World Cup victory on live television). Some people in India compared the final to a wedding without the bridge and groom. The event was in truth a huge success, and probably the first major subcontinental media saturating cricket event, of a type we have had many of since. The victory by Australia seemed to many to be a complete fluke at the time, but looking from 2007 it seems almost fated - the first of a great many Australian victories that have filled the last 20 years. (I remember reading in an English newspaper a couple of months after the event that gave no credit to Australia whatsoever, blamed the victory mostly on Mike Gatting's reverse sweep, and that it was a game that "England would have won nine times out of ten". You cannot imagine an English commentator saying that about England v Australia matches these days, but that kind of attitude might help to explain why we still enjoy beating England so much.) 1987 was also probably the time when the curious inability of home sides to win the World Cup started to become lear. Nobody had expected England to win any of the three previous tournaments in England, and England did actually do well ennough, especially in 1979. However, India and Pakistan could not do it in 1987, and then Australia could not even make the semi-finals despite being pre-tournament favourites in 1992.

But as I was saying, 1987 was the first big subcontinental cricketing media event. The media has loved such events to promote the Indian team, promote the Pakistan team, promote the rivaly, and promote the media and products. In 1996 the tournament was back in India and Pakistan, but much the same thing happened. Unfortunatly from the organisers point of view, India and Pakistan ended up meeting in a knock out quarter final. (Knock-out quarter finals have not been used in a World Cup since. This is probably not a coincidence). India won this, but were beaten by Sri Lanka in a semi-final and went on to win the tournament. That rather romantic result made the tournament, but it was a more bad-tempered event than 1987, the low point being India defaulting the semi-final to Sri Lanka after a crowd riot when it became obvious Sri Lanka were going to win the match.

The two World Cups since then have been played in England and South Africa, and although the Indian money and sponsorship was present in both cases, it did not overwhelm the events. This was partly due to the cultures of the host countries, and partly due to the dominance of counries other than India and Pakistan. Pakistan made the final in England in 1999, but were overwhelmed by Australia in the final. That final was notable for two titanic struggles between Australia and South Africa in the Super Six round and the semi-final. In 2003 in South Africa India made the final and generally played well, but that tournament was notable for the truly awe inspiring dominance of Australia. No other side was ever in the hunt. There were stirrings of controversy and suspicion in those tournaments when occasional upsets occurred. However, in the cricketing world at large, there were unending one day internationals involving India and Pakistan (many played in the United Arab Emirates, which was apparently a hotbed of bookmaking and corruption) more and more Indian television money, Indian sponsorship, and at times dubious results and match fixing scandals. (The most publicised of these were the ones in which players and officials from countries other than India and Pakistan became implicated. The most notorious of these occurred in 2000, when South African captain Hansie Cronje was had a telephone conversation recorded in which he was talking to an Indian bookmaker and agreeing to fix matches. In the subsequent scandal, Cronje was given immunity from prosecution in return for testimony in which he told all. Cronje repeatedly changed his story, appearing to be trying to tell as little as he could get away with and then being found out repeately. Eventually a web of match fixing appeared, and it became clear that Cronje had hundreds of undisclosed bank accounts throughout the world. Despite Cronje's inconsistency, he kept his immunity and after getting a life ban from international cricket that he bizarrely but unsuccessfully contested in court he died mysteriously in a plane crash in South Africa in 2002).

This year's World Cup was given to the West Indies as a compromise at the end of a very bitter struggle for the rights to host the 1996 World Cup, that ended up in the Indian subcontinant that ocurred in around 1993. England considered that the 1966 tournament was "their turn", and India and Pakistan wanted to host the tournament for financial reasons. After a heated and apparently very bitter meeting, the tourmament was given to the subcontinentals, with an agreement that a "rotation" policy would be instituted going forwards, with the following tournaments given to England, South Africa, the West Indies, Australia, and then the subcontinent one more (it was a bit vague at that point). The Indians last year suggested that given the bulk of money in cricket now comes from India, they should not have to wait until 2016 to next host the tournament and should host every third tournament in future, The Australian board (presumably upon being offered a large sum of money) made way, and the 2012 tournament was given to India and Pakistan with the 2016 tournament going to Australia. (There will be a fight over the right to host the 2020 tournament between England and South Africa, as the Indians are going to clearly want 2024 and money will likely speak. All assuming that international cricket does not implode by then.

But, anyway, as a consequence of that deal of more than a decade ago, this present tournament is being held in the poor countries of the English speaking West Indies. It is clear now that inevitably Indian money and influence has dominated the planning and organisation of this tournament. As an example, the four major sponsors whose names appear on the grounds at every game are international companies, but with an Indian twist. We have "Hutch" - the Indian mobile phone company that has just been sold by Hong Kong Conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa to Vodafone. Hutchison runs mobile phone networks in lots of other countries as well as India, but under the brand "Three". It is their Indian business that is being promoted. (The business is going to be rebranded as "Vodafone" shortly. If that had happened first, an international business might have been able to get some value out of the sponsorship. Then we have "Hero Honda". This is another global company - the Japanese car company. But it is not just "Honda", it is the Indian subsidiary specifically. We have "Pepsi", obviously a global brand, but one with a long history of sponsoring Indian cricket. India, not coincidentally is a market where Pepsi does far better in its global war with Coke than it does in most plaes. And we have "LG", the Korean chaebol and the closest to a generally internationally aimed sponsorship of the four. But it is a chaebol very much aiming its sales at mid income markets like India. If Samsung were to advertise, that would not necessarily be aimed at India, as Samsung sees itself as much more a first world company. LG suits the Indian market.

This year's World Cup was, as I said, organised for the benefit of the subontinental and particularly Indian markets far more than any in some time. And from that perspective something went terribly wrong. It was supposed to be easy for the best eight teams including India and Pakistan to go through to the Super Eight stage of the tournament, which is to take up four weeks of the six and a half week schedule. However, four days into the tournament Pakistan managed to be eliminated, and India managed to lose unexpectedly, putting their place in the Super Eight in jeaopardy. Pakistan's coach Bob Wollmer was then murdered, with ramifications we are still trying to figure out. India then had a struggle to make Super Eight, needing to win against both Bermuda and Sri Lanka. They beat Bermuda easily enough, but yesterday lost badly to Sri Lanka, almost certainly ensuring that India will not progress further in the tournament. (To do so, Bermuda will have to beat Bangladesh tomorrow, which is inonceivable, not withstanding the fact that so far this is a tournament in which six inconceivable things seem to be regularly happening before breakfast.

A crucial break has opened up in international cricket in recent years. All the money has been generated in India, but the Indian team and its oldest rivals have simply not been as good as teams from other parts of the world. Teams from other parts of the world (most notably Australia) have been much better. In most professional sports, the market would correct this, and in some ways it has in cricket too. (The best side in the world is Australia. Australia and India play one another a lot, and the Australians are paid a great deal to do this. Australians are also paid a lot of money to be sponsored and to make advertisements by Indian companies). However, cricket's curious structure in which players play for national representative teams that play together for most of the year, and players are unable to transfer between teams has prevented this happening to an extent that would probably be healthy. (The subcontinental teams have of course been able to hire Australian and English/South African coaches in an attempt to improve their playing strength. Australian Dav Whatmore led Sri Lanka to the World Cup in 1996, and this has led to Pakistan and India to also import coaches. (Whatmore now coaches Bangladesh, whose victory of India last week completely threw a spanner in the works). After Bob Woolmer's murder, one does tend to think that they may difficulty hiring more, however. In particular, if I were Indian's Australian coach Greg Chappell, I would be getting on a plane back to Brisbane, and fast.

This strange structure has encouraged corruption, and the nature or the countries involved (India and Pakistan) has fed this hugely. As it happens, the early elimination of the teams representing and of most interest to the nation for whose benefit the tournament is essentially being held is having and will have huge financial ramifications, for sponsors, for television companies, and for bookmakers and gangsters, and for the International Cricket Council. One man has been murdered, but I think we have only seen the beginning of the fallout. The losers go up to some of the richest men in the world, but they are not really the problem. Rupert Murdoch can afford to shrug his shoulders. People with financial connections to the Bombay and Karachi underworlds cannot do so so easily. The question we are waiting for the answer to is just who, precisely, fits into this category of people, and how many of them are players, coaches, and administrators of the game of cricket.

Friday, March 23, 2007

More speculation about Bob Woolmer's murder

Michael and Brian Micklethwait have indulged in some serious and thought-provoking speculation on the Woolmer affair. There are so many wheels within wheels in international cricket going on that are affected by this that 'trendy' universities will soon be offering degrees in 'cricket studies', and I'm not talking about the cover drive either.
Woolmer was murdered, and the days of meaningless games are over (assuming the cup itself is not meaningless).

As I suspect most readers of this blog are aware, Jamaican police have confirmed that Bob Woolmer was murdered, and we are having bizarre events occur like the police taking fingerprints of the entire Pakistan team. My assumption is that the murder was carried out by somebody connected with Pakistani bookmakers. As to why, the most convincing argument I can find comes from Guy Herbert on Samizdata.


A hypothesis that fits this model is that Woolmer was killed because his team accidentally lost to Ireland, radically cutting down on subcontinental betting at the latter stages of the competition and thus bookies' profits. In the world of the gangster there can be no accidents, so someone had be blamed and someone had to pay.


I personally find it hard to believe that the murder was not in some way connected with Pakistan's loss to Ireland. That itself was such a remarkable event, and the two events came so close together that it seems unlikely they were not connected. It does seem very unlikely that bookmakers would want Pakistan eliminated so early in the tournament. The suggestion that Woolmer was murdered because he planned to write a book exposing what was going on in Pakistan has been much mentioned, but I don't buy it. I can buy the possibility of him being murdered over it, but the timing is all wrong. Why would bookmakers do it at a time when it would upset the World Cup, from which they were trying to make large sums of money? Scott believes that it may have been an enraged fun who had perhaps lost money on the match. This might be possible, but I don't really buy it either. The fan would have had to have located Woolmer's hotel room, been either invited into the room or in some way forced entry, and then murdered Woolmer and got out without causing suspicion or evidence or memories behind. I tend to think that if it were the "enraged" fan, then he would have been caught by now.

But this is all speculation. I do not know what is going on in Jamaica and I do not know any of the people involved. Hopefully Indian coach and former Australian captain Greg Chappell has good security. Also, I can't imagine there will be many foreign applicants for the now vacant position of coach of Pakistan.

Onto cricket. Two games yesterday, both fairly humdrum. Despite their heavy defeats by Australia and South Africa, the Netherlands demonstrated that they are much better than Scotland with an easy eight wicket win. New Zealand v Canada was more interesting. Thanks to 101 from Lou Vincent, 66 from Simon Fleming, 47 from Peter Fultun and 52 from Brendon McCullum, New Zealand amassed a huge 5/363 off their 50 overs. Most minnows would then crumble and get out for 130, but Canada took it to New Zealand. John Davison was the star of the minnow players at the last world cup (hitting the fastest century in World Cup history, and he hit 52 off 31 balls yesterday, followed by 40 from Barnett, 37 from Bagai, and 50 from Billcliff. At one point Canada were 2/188 in the 35th over, but the target was too high and they eventually crumbled and slowed to be out for 249 off 49.2 overs. (It is worth noting that Shane Bond was not playing. Canada would have been unlikely to score so many runs if he had been). New Zealand finish their first round matches with three wins out of three and will carry two points over into the Super Eight. New Zealand have been one of the most professional sides in the tournament in getting through the first round.

I think in cricketing terms the tournament really now gets going. Today we have India versus Sri Lanka in Trinidad and Ireland v West Indies in Jamaica. The first of these games is huge. India need to win to make the Super 8. If they do, they will also carry two points with them into the Super eight, and their position will be a good one for the rest of the tournament. If they lose, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will to through with Sri Lanka carrying over two points. These points are a big deal for Sri Lanka, but this is a bigger game for India, and for the organisers, and for the TV networks. If the occasion was equal for both sides, I would favour Sri Lanka, but here I just don't know. I call it 50-50. However, if India lose, I would advise Greg Chappell not to go anywhere alone for a little while.

The other game is West Indies versus Ireland. Both sides have made the super eight already and today's winner will carry over two points. The West Indies have been a little lackluster so far, but have in truth done everything asked of them, unlike (say) India. West Indian captain Brian Lara has said the right things about not underestimating Ireland today, and I am sure the West Indies won't underestimate Ireland, and as a consequence should win easily.

Tomorrow we have Australia v South Africa. Both sides have already qualified for the Super Eight, but the winner carries two points over. Both sides probably see the other as their biggest obstacle to winning the tournament.

There is also one other little oddity here. Australia have a 14 game winning streak in World Cup matches. This winning streak started in the 1999 final. Think about that. The winning streak started in the final of a match with semi-finals. How odd is that? The reason of course is that the game before that was the memorable tied semi-final between Australia and South Africa, and Australia went through to the final on the basis of a higher position in the Super Six. (Australia's unbeaten streak in World Cup matches is actually 20 games, which is pretty amazing). I am sure South Africa remember all this well, and they will be out for revenge.

Also tomorrow, we have Kenya versus England. If Kenya were to beat England Kenya would go through and England would be eliminated. England have been unimpressive, but still should win. However, Kenya are probably the best of the minnows if you do not count Bangladesh, and an upset, although improbable, is not impossible. Still England to win that one.

The first round matches then finish with Bermuda playing Bangladesh. Bangladesh will win this easily. Whether that result is a confirmation of their place in the Super Eight or just a consolation prize depends on the result today.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

The World Cup has become complicated, even without the cricket

I am sure that my readers have noticed that my coverage of matches has dropped over the last few days. I have got home from work, sat down at the computer, and then felt like watching television, or have simply fallen asleep. It is not so much that the cricket has not been interesting - thanks to last Saturday's upsets the first section of the tournament has been rather more interesting that I had expected as the consequences filter through. It is more the Bob Woolmer affair. As a casually watching blogger, there is really nothing I can add in terms of what is happening.

On the actual cricket, well, I can follow what is going on from a desk and a sofa in London, and I can even lend a bit of insight. With respect to the Woolmer thing, I don't know anybody involved, and I have no idea what is being said in hotel breakfast rooms and bars and police stations in the Carribean. I can say that I am sorry to hear of Woolmer's death, but beyond that what is there to say?

Well, actually, I did say something on it in the Samzidata comments yesterday, so I suppose I can cut and paste that here. Pakistan cricket is a horrendous cesspool of corruption, cheating, bribery, and lord knows what else. Still, when I heard that Woolmer had died, I was expecting an announcement a couple of hours later that he had died of a heart attack, and that would be the end of it. It appears now that he was also diabetic, and although one can certainly die fairly suddenly as a consequence of this, when it happens there is again little mysterious and I would have expected a quick annoucement. The fact that nobody is saying anything makes me think the worst at this point. There is clearly a thorough investigation going on that the police are not talking about until they know more. And if the description of the death scene in one of Brian's links is accurate, that does not sound like a heart attack or a diabetic attack. I also find the timing of it - immediately after one of the bigger upsets in recent times - to be most peculiar. We all want to celebrate unexpected upsets, but there have been so many times in which odd tactics and unexpected results have in recent years turned out to have been fixed matches or the result of other intrigues, that one is sceptical. When the coach is possibly murdered a few hours after an upset, one wonders whether the upset and the death are connected. A few years ago I would not have comprehended that cricket would lead to speculation like this, but sadly it has.

I have always been very suspicous about the death of former South African captain Hansie Cronje in a plane crash in 2003. When someone as mixed up with gangsters as Cronje dies mysteriously, one tends to think the worst. I wouldn't have thought that Woolmer was mixed up with gangsters. However, nobody would have believed it of Cronje (who had a reputation for being honest, upstanding, and God-fearing) until he was caught red handed. Secondly, perhaps the situation is that to enter the Pakistan dressing room is to be mixed up with gangsters.

If this turns out to be murder, I think that Pakistan should be thrown out of international cricket. Given the nature of the ICC, I cannot believe it would actually happen, but it would be appropriate. If that is so, I would almost prefer that the World Cup not be proceeded with either. I get a sense that many of the players have rather lost their enthusiam for it, and rather want to go home.

Pakistan are going home, and I think that is fortunate. They apparently did not want to play their last game yesterday, but the organisers insisted that they did. This was good, because the integrity of the competition would have been further damaged by such a happening. The integrity of the last World Cup was badly damaged by defaults against Kenya and Zimbabwe, and we did not want that here. A default yesterday would have possibly sent Zimbabwe through to the Super 8 instead of Ireland, although it would have depended on the net run rate after Ireland had played the West Indies. As it was Ireland who had earned the place by beating Pakistan (regardless of any suspicions of mine), it was and is best that they go through rather than Zimbabwe going through on default. As it happened, once Pakistan were on the field they played better than they had in the earlier games that mattered. Thanks to 160 from Imran Nazir, Pakistan scored 349, being bowled out off the second last scheduled ball of the innings. At one point it looked like Nazir was on target to break the individual scoring record in one day internationals, for fortunately this did not happen. The holy grail of a one day international double century will some day come, and I do not want it to happen in a meaningless match against weak opposition when nobody wanted to be there. (If Adam Gilchrist or Matthew Hayden could do it in the World Cup final, that would be perfect). Zimbabwe were never in it, and were 3/30 off 10.2 overs when there was a rain delay. The target was reduced to 193 from 20 overs on the Duckworth-Lewis rule, but Zimbabwe managed to get bowled out for 99 off 19.1 overs, for an easy Pakistan victory. West Indies and Ireland go through from that group. The winner of the forthcoming West Indies v Ireland match will take two points through to the next round. One has to assume that will be the West indies.

In the other match, Sri Lanka took on Bangladesh, and there was interest in whether Bangladesh could challenge a prepared and wary Sri Lankan team. The answer: no. Sri Lanka got off to a flier, scoring 1/137 off the first 25 overs. Jayasuriya is enjoying his last World Cup, and scored 82 off 77 balls, before having to retire hurt with a leg injury. Although Jayasuriya later came back to complete his century (ending up with 109), he had been on target for something bigger before the injury. Sri Lanka ended up with 4/318, with scores around 50 to Jayawardene, Sangakkara, and Silva. Bangladesh were then not impressive with the bat, being bowled out for 112 after the target was reduced to 311 from 46 overs. Both the Sri Lankan and Indian run rates have now been boosted to such a point that it is not going to matter by how much Bangladesh can beat Bermuda if India beat Sri Lanka. Bangladesh't only hope now is for Sri Lanka to beat India.

Sri Lanka beating India is not a terribly unlikely outcome, but it is a terrible outcome for the organisers and TV networks. The whole tournament is being bankrolled by Indian money. To see this, just look at the ground advertising, which is virtually all for Indian companies. Interestingly enough, one of the biggest advertisers is "Hutch", which is Hutchison Essar, the Indian mobile phone company that has just been sold by Hong Kong comglomerage Hutchison Whampoa to Vodafone, and is about to be rebranded as "Vodafone". If they had already rebranded it, then they might even get something from the advertising after India get knocked out.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

India did what was necessary. Now we wait for Sri Lanka.

Since I last posted here, there have been four mathes, all of the "stronger side meets weaker side" variety. When a stronger side outclasses the opposition, there are usually two ways to go about it. The stronger side can either do what is needed and win comfortably and take the points without doing anything flashy or go out and hit the stuffing out of the weaker side to win by the largest possible margin.

Normally, I consider the second of these options to be slightly bad form, but there are certain cases when it is necessary. Yesterday's game between India and Bermuda was such a case. India knew that there is a strong chance that the teams who go through from group B will be decided by run rate. They also knew that they have more batting firepower than Bangladesh or Sri Lanka, so that if they beat Bermuda by the highest possible margin, it would likely make a big difference. So, after being sent in (and losing one quick wicket) India really went for it. Sehweg scored 114 in a 200 run partnership with Ganguly and then Yuvraj Singh scored 83 runs off 46 balls and Tendulkar 57 not out off 29. In all, India scored 5/413 off 50 overs including 18 sixes and 30 fours, the highest score in World Cup history. Bermuda batted better than some might have expected, scoring 156, largely thanks to 73 not out by David Hemp. Still, a huge 257 run win, exactly what India needed, both from the perspective of their confidence and the tournament.

Yoday, though, we discover if it was necessary. Sri Lanka play Bangladesh. If Bangladesh win, then Sri Lanka and India essentially play off for the second place in the Super eights after Bangladesh take the first. Run rate then does not matter, unless they play a tie. If Sri Lanka wins, and then India beats Sri Lanka, the three sides are level, and the two with the best run rate make it. In that event, Bangladesh are the most likely side to miss out.
After the upsets, it is business as usual

This week's fixtures have been fairly humdrum in the group stages of the 2007 World Cup. So far, we have had minnows facing the giants, and there hasn't been a sniff of an upset. However, tonight's fixtures offer a chance, with Sri Lanka facing Bangladesh, and Pakistan facing Zimbabwe.

If Bangladesh win this fixture, they are almost certain of qualifying, and will probably top their group. However, they will find the Sri Lankans to be a tougher nut to crack then the Indians, who they caught on the hop. The pleasing thing though for Bangladesh is that if they bring their best game with them, they do give themselves a good chance of beating any side, now. However, if Sri Lanka bring their best game along, then Bangladesh have no chance. Sri Lanka must be accounted one of the tournament favourites, with a well balanced team.

Still it should be an interesting game.

Zimbabwe vs Pakistan would not normally be considered an interesting game. Zimbabwean cricket is at a low ebb and the West Indies saw them off the other day without raising a sweat. However, Pakistan are now in total disarray, and are only playing in this game under direct instruction. It is possible that their coach, Bob Woolmer, was actually murdered, and the general state of mind of the team can hardly be any worse. Zimbabwe, comprised of triers, might find Pakistan theirs for the taking. However, these events might also galvanise Pakistan to take out their frustrations on the Zimbabweans.

If Zimbabwe win the game, it throws the race in the group wide open. It will all come down to a do-or-die fixture between Ireland and West Indies, and it will come down to that old monster, Net Run Rate, to determine who qualifies. (assuming that West Indies beat Ireland.)

In the other groups, England still have to beat Kenya to be certain of qualifying. If they lose, the second position behind New Zealand will come down to Net Run Rate. In Group A, Australia and South Africa have already qualified. Putting the two strongest ODI nations with two of the weaker minnows was always going to be ugly, and so it has proved, although Scotland were gallant to bat through their 50 overs against South Africa yesterday.

So while this week has so far been fairly unremarkable in 2007 World Cup it should finish off on a high as the group phase winds up.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Brief daily thoughts

Like everyone else, I was sorrowed and surprised to hear of Bob Woolmer's death. There really isn't much I can say. He was clearly a man who loved his cricket, and my condolences go out to his friends and family.

There is no need for more than a brief discussion of the day's play. Whereas yesterday was a day of upsets, everything went according to the script today. Australia had little trouble with Holland. Australia got off to a solid start before losing the wickets of Gilchrist, Hayden and Ponting, to take the score to 3/116 of 20.1 overs. Hodge and Clark gave a texbook demonstration of how to play in such a situation, letting the scoreboard tick over at four or five an over, and not losing further wickets. As the 40 over mark approached, they boosted the scoring rate, and Hodge in particular really cut loose, eventually hitting seven sixes and scoring 123 off 89 balls before being out in the 48th over after a partnership of 204. Clarke ended up 93 not out off 85 balls and Watson a quick 12 off four balls to take Austalia to 5/358 off the 50 overs. The Dutch couldn't compete at all, steadily losing wickets to be all out for 129. Wickets were shared. McGrath and Bracken each took two and Hogg took four. Australia won by 229 runs

The two wins mean that for all practical purposes Australia are through to the super eight. (To miss out, Australia would have to lose to South Africa, Scotland would have to beat South Africa, and Scotland would have to beat the Netherlands, and all those games would have to have winning margins of about 250 runs. It isn't going to happen). Australia play South Africa on Friday. This is an important game, as the points will carry over into the super eight. Look to Austrlia to bring Andrew Symonds in for that game. I am not sure who Australia leave out though. Hodge and Clark would have been the most likely choices, but both played well today. I can't imagine they would leave out Hussey, so it is a difficult choice for the selectors.

In the other game, England played Canada. After England's off field indiscipline (that Philip has written about) they dropped Flintoff from the side and essentially stripped him of the vice-captaincy. England were sent in by Canada, and batted solidly but not spectacularly for the 50 overs. Runs from Joyce and Collingwood, and a few from Vaughan and Bopara got them an unexciting but perfectly adequate 6/278 off the 50 overs. Canada lost a couple of early wickets, and then weren't really in the hunt, although they batted solidly and England were at times a little sloppy in the field. Canada managed a total of 228/7 off the 50 overs, and England won by 51 runs.

This isn't really very impressive on the part of England - Kenya beat Canada much more convincingly last week than did England today - and England have not had an impressive tournament so far - but they are still perfectly on track to make the Super Eight. Assuming New Zealand beat Kenya on Tuesday, England will just need to beat Kenya on Satuday to go through. If they lose they will be out, but it will be nobody's fault but theirs. They should be strong enough to win easily enough. In the unlikely event that Kenya beat New Zealand, it may be that England's lacklustre performances will count against them in terms of net run rate. However, they will have the advantage of playing the last game in the group. They will know exactly what to do. And this is all speculation anyway. New Zealand are much too disciplined to lose to Kenya, so England are likely to have the simple equation of needing a win.

Tomorrow we have Bermuda versus India in Trinidad and West Indies versus Zimbabwe in Jamaica. It is very important indeed for India that they beat Bermuda by the largest possible margin. We may well see fireworks when India bats. If the West Indies beat Zimbabwe, then the West Indies are through. In the unlikely event that Zimbabwe wins, Group D becomes even more complicated than it is already.

Now that Flintoff has been sacked from the vice-captaincy and the management have asserted that they will not consider him for the role of captaincy in the World Cup (and probably not in the future), the experiment of the all-rounder has come to a close [again]. The conclusion fulfils the hallmarks of that word: unedifying.

Flintoff's record as captain will not stand up well in the annals. Yet, the episode in which he is finally reprimanded, involving allegations that he was drunk in charge of a pedalo, does hint that he had entered Situation Impossible. Some do not have the courage to cut through the knots that bind a particular impasse, such as resigning from the captaincy of the England cricket team. The acknowledgement of one's own failure is a difficult circumstance to embrace.

Coach Duncan Fletcher said Flintoff would not be considered for the captaincy should Michael Vaughan get injured in the World Cup.

He said in a statement: "Andrew Flintoff has been given warnings about his conduct and disciplined for previous incidents of this nature.

The Board of Selectors and the coach are responsible for ensuring that the best captain is chosen for the team. If the wrong cricketer is chosen, they should have the power and the skills to end his responsibility without undue damage to his skills or previous position within the team. Fletcher's statement on Flintoff does beg the question as to why he was chosen in the first place and retained his position in Australia. The depth of skilled cricketers within the England team is not so great that they can afford to sack a captain and remove him from the team.

England's management had initially refused to speculate on a report in Sunday's News of the World, under a back-page headline of "Sunk' n' Drunk - Freddie fined after pedalo booze shame", that stated that Flintoff had toppled into the water after a late-night drinking session at the Rumours Nightclub near England's team hotel in St Lucia. Fans who witnessed events contacted several British newspapers to tell them what they'd seen.

Nasser Hussain, Flintoff's former captain, praised England's management for their hard-line stance on Flintoff's antics. "There is a history to this story," Hussain told Sky Sports. "It is not the first time. In Australia he had three or four warnings about his drinking. The management felt enough is enough. At some stage you have to have some strong management, even with your best cricketer. Well done England for finally for having some strong management."

The end of Flintoff's captaincy prospects could have been handled better. Did the management wait for an 'event' to carry out the inevitable withdrawal of favour inflicting disruption and psychologically unsettling a team that is already lacking confidence?

A tragedy overshadows the cricket

Pakistan's coach, Bob Woolmer, has died. This Cricinfo obituary sums up his cricketing achievements.
An extraordinary day, and an amount of crow

In my preview of this tournament, I wrote the following.

There are 16 teams playing in this year's tournament: West Indies; Pakistan; Australia; Sri Lanka; South Africa; England; New Zealand; India; Scotland; Canada; Kenya; Bermuda; Ireland; Zimbabwe; Netherlands; and Bangladesh. Only the first eight of these teams have an chance of winning the tournament. It is unimaginable that any of the other eight could win it. The tournament organisers know this, which is why the second round consists of eight teams and the first stage is relatively short. It is extremely unlikely that any of the second eight teams will make the second round. It is quite unlikely that any of the second eight teams will win a game against any of the first eight, although such events have occurred in previous tournaments.

Now that the extremely unlikely and the quite unlikely have both happened, I suppose I have to draw attention to it. When I made this comment and only discussed the prospects of the top eight sides, a well known Bangladeshi blogger did chide me a little in the comments of this blog for not previewing the other eight teams as well. There was no malice in my not doing this: I simply did not have time, and in many cases I simply did no know much about the teams in question. Of those I did, I didn't feel like writing about Zimbabwe, but I should have written about Bangladesh. Bangladesh have full international status and play regularly against the good teams of international cricket. Although they have shown fight at times, they have been slowly improving, and have won the occasional match against the strong sides of world cricket (most notably against Australia in England in 2005). With a population base of more than 100 million and great enthusiasm for cricket, I have always been of the opinion that Bangladesh would come good some time, but I wasn't sure when (and in truth I am still not, but more on that in a bit). Last year they played mainly against Zimbabwe, Kenya, and other lesser sides in one day matches rather than the stronger sides: their record was good, but when they had to play the stronger sides in the ICC Champions Trophy, they were beaten. However, it is clear that they had regular competition and had a chance to get their tactics and strategies right, for they were hugely impressive yesterday.

As most of my readers would know, yesterday there were two upsets: Bangladesh beat India and Ireland beat Pakistan. Ireland beating Pakistan was I think the most remarkable result in the history of the World Cup. Pakistan are now out of the tournament, and Ireland are very likely through to the Super 8. However, that match was a fluke. Ireland are a side put together from discards from other nations who can find some Irish ancestry. The winning six was hit by Ireland captain Trent Johnston, who happens to be a native of the Australian city of Wollongong (as for that matter am I). He is likely more Irish than I am, but only barely. Ireland do not have a strong domestic structure. This win does not herald a new age in Irish cricket, although the Irish supporters (who had come for the Six Nations rugby) in the Sports Cafe in Haymarket yesterday were clearly enjoying it. Pakistan were an obviously vulnerable side, and they collapsed. Watching the end of the match, everyone knew that when Ireland had Pakistan at 8/105 everyone knew that the two final wickets had to be taken quickly, as there was no guarantee that Ireland's batting could get even a modest target. The final 132 looked to me like it might have been too much, but Ireland just scraped home, thanks largely to 72 from Niall O'Brien. When O'Brien got out stumped to a stupid shot and two more wickets fell immediately, it looked like Ireland were going to stumble at the final moment. However, Niall's brother Kevin O'Brien and Trent Johnston played very carefully to get Ireland home. Carefully until the scores were level, anyway, when Johnstone finished the match with a big six.

The Bangladesh v India match was in a way similar but in a way different. Firstly, Bangladesh bowled with more discipline and skill than did Ireland. One can't say that India batted particularly well, but Bangladesh bowled with skill to take advantage of them. Mashrafe Mortaza took 4/38 off 9.3 overs. Syen Rasel took 0/31 off 10. Abdur Razzak took 3/38 off 10. Mohammad Rafique 3/35 off 10. This was good disciplined bowling all round. Bangladesh got India to 9/159, and then the last two batsmen dug on and got the score to 191. India had more runs than Pakistan, but there was far less concern in the Bangladesh game about the tail enders getting a few more runs. India's back had been broken, and if Bangladesh was a professional side, then they would be able to get 191 with not much more difficulty than 159. If Bangladesh were to win it, this would be about them showing they were a professional side.

And they did it easily enough. 51 to Tamim Iqbal. 56 non out to Mushfiqur Rahim. 53 to Saqibul Hasan. Bangladesh's captain (and so often their best batsman) Habibul Bashar got out for 1, but it did not matter as the job was largely done by then. A pretty professional performance by Bangladesh.

However, Bangladesh have plenty more to do. The table in group B looks like this






Group BPlayedWonLostTied/NRPtsNet RR
Sri Lanka110024.860
Bangladesh110020.139
India10100-0.139
Bermuda10100-4.860


Disregarding any predictions I might have made about the likelihood of upsets so far, let us only consider situations in which Bermuda lose to both India and Bangladesh. (Bermuda are the weakest side in the tournament). There are two other games that matter: Sri Lanka v Bangladesh and Sri Lanka v India. If Bangladesh can beat Sri Lanka, then Bangladesh go through and top the group. The other team that goes through from that group is the winner of India v Sri Lanka. If Bangladesh lose to Sri Lanka, and Sri Lanka beats India, then Bangladesh and Sri Lanka go through and India are eliminated. If on the other hand Bandladesh lose to Sri Lanka and India beats Sri Lanka, then all three are tied on points and it goes down to net run rate - essentially who can thrash Bermuda by the largest margin. Sri lanka have already beaten them by 221 runs. You would think that with Tendulkar, Dravid, and the like, India can do something similar. The question remains as to whether Bangladesh have the destructive batsmen to do this themselves. For Bangladesh it would be best if they can simply defeat Sri Lanka. It is clear though that despite yesterday's victory, Bangladesh have work to do to make the Super 8. At least they do if Sri Lanka are unable to beat India. Sri Lanka are a very good side though. They have an excellent chance of beating India. On the other hand, India will be very motivated for that match - I can't imagine returning to India would be much fun after failing to make the last eight.

For Bangladesh, the aim in the rest of the tournament is to prove that this result was no fluke, that they have risen up the ranks, and that they deserve to be treated as one of the major nations of world cricket going forwards. If they do no more than they have done already in this tournament, they have made a fine step forward. Win a few more games, and it is a lot more than that.

And for that matter, returning to Pakistan is not going to be much fun after Pakistan have failed to make the last eight. That one is not hypothetical. Pakistan are out. Look at Group D.






Group DPlayedWonLostTied/NRPtsNet RR
Ireland210130.274
West Indies110021.080
Zimbabwe100110.000
Pakistan20200-0.843


Pakistan are gone. Even if they win their last game against Zimbabwe, that will give them a maximum of two points. They cannot finish above Ireland, who have three points already. Zimbabwe and the West Indies are still to play, and the winner of that came will have at least three points. If that game is tied or no result, then the West Indies will have three points.

Ireland and the West Indies will go through from this group unless Zimbabwe can cause an upset. If Ireland and Zimbabwe both beat the West Indies, Ireland and Zimbabwe will go through. (I am not holding my breath). If Zimbabwe beat the West Indies and the West Indies beat Ireland then it goes down to net run rate between Ireland and Zimbabwe.

In a nutshell, it would be very unlucky for Ireland to miss out on the Super Eight from here. That point they got from the tie against Zimbabwe turns out to be immensely valuable. If they had lost to Zimbabwe, we would still be looking at Pakistan quite probably going through from Group D.

Okay, Australia v Holland and Canada v England today. Australia will want to give Holland similar treatment than what they got from South Africa, just to make a point to the South Africans, I fear. This might not be fun if you are Holland. The win will for all practical purposes mean Australia qualify for the super eight. England will need to beat Canada to remain comfortably in the competition. I am sure they will, although the question of by how much remains open.

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