Yesterday was the second last day of the World Cup pool games, and two of the three matches mattered. In the one that didn't matter, the Netherlands beat Kenya by 64 runs. Not much of interest there, other than some good batting by the Dutch.

In the second game, New Zealand played Canada. Going in to that game New Zealand knew that if South Africa was to beat Sri Lanka later in the day, New Zealand would need a much better net runrate than they had. So, after Canada were all out for 197, New Zealand came out and went about wildly hitting the ball all over the place. It was fun to watch, but they lost wickets in doing it, and at 5/114 off 13 overs, they slowed down, eventually getting the target off 23 overs. This wasn't enough of a runrate boost to help much, but captain Stephen Fleming correctly praised his team anyway. He said that their aim had been to score the runs off 16 overs, but that wouldn't have required one of the batsmen to do something remarkable. Scoring 8.5 runs an over, as they did, was still good. However, New Zealand then had to wait for the result of the later game, and hope that South Africa did not beat Sri Lanka.

In the last game, South Africa had to win to make the Super Six stage. Any other result, and New Zealand and Sri Lanka would go through. Sri Lanka got off to a reasonably slow start with the bat, but Marvan Atapattu and Aravinda De Silva batted superbly in the middle stages. At 3/242 off 44.4 overs, it looked like Sri Lanka might end up with something like 310, but both batsmen were out at the 45 over mark, and Sri Lanka struggled to a still good total of 9/268 off 50 overs. In reply, South Africa got off to a flying start, with more than six runs an over and no loss of wickets for the first ten overs. Gibbs scored a fine 73. Then, however, they slumped in the middle order, and at one point were 5/149 off 29.1 overs, and it looked like a Sri Lankan victory was imminent. However, Boucher and Pollock batted well, and South Africa appeared once more to be making a good effort. The weather then closed in. If a match is not complete, a complicated mathematical formula called the Duckworth-Lewis rule applies to decide the winner. (This rule is very fair, but quite complicated). The D/L rule stated in this instance that after 45 overs, if South Africa had lost six wickets they would then need 229 runs to tie the match and 230 to win the match. As the rain was closing in, South African captain Shaun Pollock sent a message out to Boucher saying that the batsmen needed to have at least 229 runs at the 45 over mark. However, things got mixed up, and somehow it was thought that this would be enough runs for the match to be declared a South African win, and not a tie. As it happens. Boucher hit a six, and got what he thought was enough runs. He didn't attempt to score any runs off the last ball of the over. At the end of the over the heavens opened, the players came off, and after an hour of waiting and hoping the match would restart, the match was declared a tie.

On this basis, South Africa were eliminated from the tournament, as the two points for a tie were not enough to get them ahead of New Zealand on the table.

Just out of interest, in the Super Six stage, full points will be carried over from the groups stage of any matches that involve two teams that both made the Super Six stage. For matches between one team that made the Super Six and one that did not, the team that goes through carries one quarter of the points that were earned from the match. (I will explain the reasoning behind this rule in Michael Jennings extra later, if I have time). This means that the starting table will be as follows.

Australia 12
Kenya 10
India 8
Sri Lanka 7.5
New Zealand 4
(Zimbabwe 4)
(England 3)
(Pakistan 3)

The points in brackets are the number of points that the final qualifier will have. Who that will be depends on the result of Pakistan v Zimbabwe today. (If that game is tied or no result, Zimbabwe will have 3.5). Kenya will likely lose all their matches, so basically the exercise of making the semi finals involves getting past Kenya on the table. Australia do not have to do anything, India and Sri Lanka need to win only one game, and the others likely need to win two games. Zimbabwe, England, or Pakistan will have an easy game against Kenya to help them do this. New Zealand will have to beat two stronger teams, and at least one of India or Australia. New Zealand are still being penalised for their defaulting against Kenya. If they had not done this, they would have more points. (Admittedly, if Sri Lanka had beaten Kenya or if West Indies v Banglades had not been knocked out, New Zealand would have more points also).

Today we have the last two pool matches: Zimbabwe versus Pakistan and West Indies versus Kenya. West Indies versus Kenya has no impact on the competition, other than that Kenya would carry over an extra point to the Super Six if they won it. Zimbabwe Pakistan is important though. If Zimbabwe wins it, they go through to join Australia and India from Group A. If Pakistan wins it by a small margin, England goes though. If Pakistan wins it by a large margin, Pakistan goes through. At the moment, it is raining in Buluwayo. If the match is a no result, Zimbabwe goes through. If it is shortened but there is a result, it becomes very hard for Pakistan to boost their net runrate enough to go through. This plays into England's hands. For now though, the weather looks so bad that it might be Zimbabwe going through. This presumably helps New Zealand, as Zimbabwe will presumably be easier to beat than either of the others. Of course, if it leads to Kenya beating Zimbabwe, then Kenya will make the semi-finals, and everything gets more ridiculous.

Update: The Zimbabwe v Pakistan game has been declared no result. That means that Zimbabwe go through, and the starting Super Six table is this.

Australia 12
Kenya 10
India 8
Sri Lanka 7.5
New Zealand 4
Zimbabwe 3.5

Just as an observation, if England had not defaulted against Zimbabwe, and New Zealand had not defaulted against Kenya, and they had instead won the matches, the starting Super Six Table would be this.

Australia 12
India 8
New Zealand 8
Sri Lanka 7.5
West Indies 6.5
England 4

which in my opinion is an excellent reflection of the relative performances of the teams in the competition so far. Also, I think the right teams would have been eliminated.

Another thing. If instead we assume that the defaults had occurred, but that the upset (Sri Lanka losing to Kenya) and the two washed out matches (Pakistan v Zimbabwe and West Indies v Bangladesh) had not occurred, we would have had.

Australia 12
Sri Lanka 11.5
India 8
New Zealand 7
West Indies 4
England/Pakistan 3

(It's a bit hard to tell which of England or Pakistan would have had the better net runrate, although both would likely have done better than Zimbabwe, who would have been level with them on points and thus forced it to runrate rather than head to head). Once again, this is a much better reflection of what happened than what we have ended up with. (In the event that Sri Lanka had beaten Kenya, they would have earned the 11.5 points due to being unbeaten). As it was, we required all of the defaults, the upset, and the no results to force the table into the unstable mess we ended up with.

I think it must be said that one weakness of the Super Six format is that it rather amplifies the effects of defaults, upsets, and even washed out matches. One redeeming feature is that the four sides who have (IMO) played best in the tournament so far - Australia, India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka, are all still in the tournament, and will quite likely be the four semi-finalists. I think the net effect has likely been that teams that would have been eliminated in the Super Six didn't make it. In the short term, we have a lot of mismatches to watch. The cricket would be much more interesting in the Super Six stage if the West Indies and one of England or Pakistan were still playing.


Further Update: In the other game, Kenya were just dismissed for 104 chasing the West Indies' score of 7/246. Do Kenya really deserve to be in the Super Six stage with ten points, when the West Indies are going home? I blame the entire mess that led to the defaults, more than anything else. And that was mainly the ICC's fault. But still.....